WHEN Bitcoin usually moves — not which way. Bigger candles both ways. No trade signals.

  1. Live window or countdown
  2. This hour vs usual
  3. Upcoming spike windows
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HISTORY THROUGH 04 NOV 2026 · 2Y HOURLY · BTCUSDT FETCHING LIVE UPDATED --:--:-- SOFIA
NOW THIS HOUR live candle vs the 2-year average for this weekday + hour —
HOUR--:00
LIVE RANGE--%-- bp
USUAL AVG--%-- bp
PACE VS USUAL--×usual
WAITING
—
Live = current Binance BTCUSDT 1h candle range so far (high−low)/open. Usual = 2y weekday+hour average. Mid-hour ranges are still forming. [F]

UPCOMING SPIKE WINDOWS — when BTC's 1h range tends to jump

AUTO-UPDATING · SOFIA TIME

Clocks when BTC's 1h range tends to jump — not entry signals. ▲ BOARDING = under 60 min away. Dates: official BLS & Fed calendars (checked 5 Nov 2026; 2027 Fed dates are tentative). US market holidays skipped.

TIMEDATECODEWINDOWUSUAL EFFECTSTATUS

WEEK MAP — DAY × LOCAL HOUR

BRIGHTER = BIGGER AVG RANGE · WHITE BOX = NOW

BTC HOURS — RANKED BY AVERAGE 1H RANGE

#LOCALUTCNEW YORKAVG RANGEBIG-MOVE %WHAT THE CROWD IS DOINGSTATUS

SAMPLE — 17,520 hourly candles (730 per hour of the day), 4 Nov 2024 – 4 Nov 2026, one asset (BTCUSDT) on one exchange (Binance). These are past averages, not a forecast.

AVG RANGE = average (high−low)/open of the 1-hour candle, shown as % (hover shows basis points; 100 bp = 1%). BIG-MOVE % = share of hours whose range was in the top 5% of all hours (> 156 bp ≈ 1.56%). UTC / NEW YORK columns use today's offsets. CLOCK CHANGES — Sofia and New York switch summer time on different dates, so for about 4 weeks a year (2nd → last Sunday of March, and last Sunday of October → 1st Sunday of November) US events land one hour earlier in Sofia. The countdown and window list handle that automatically; the hour averages here mix both.

DAY OF WEEK

RANGE = UTC DAY · BIG-MOVE & PEAK = SOFIA DAY
DAYRANGEBIG-MOVE %PEAK HOURSTATUS
Saturday moves less than half as much as a weekday [F]. * Sunday's sharpest hour comes as the week reopens at 18:00 New York: MON 01:00–02:00 SOFIA [F]. PEAK HOUR is shown in your board timezone.

EXCHANGES NOW

REGULAR HOURS · NYSE HOLIDAYS SHOWN · OTHER HOLIDAYS NOT
VENUELOCAL HOURSSTATUS
The London–New York overlap (16:30–18:30 Sofia) contains BTC's top-3 hours [F]. Since 29 May 2026 CME crypto futures trade 24/7 [F], but the Sunday-evening spike survived (see FLT 104).

FAKE SUPPORT → LIQUIDATION — bounce then dump

WHEN A MID-DUMP DIP-BUY GETS STEAMROLLED · NOT WHICH WAY

The chart shape: a sharp dump, a brief “emotional support” bounce that fails to reclaim half the drop, then continuation that liquidates the dip-buyers. Measured on Binance BTCUSDT 5m, Nov 2024 – Oct 2026. [F] counts · [E] reading.

AFTER A FAILED 50% FIB BOUNCE IN A ≥3% DUMP
--% MAKE A NEW LOW IN 4H
—

SOURCE · EXACT RULE · CAVEATS
Brand note: this is the “robbing liquidations” shape — relief buys mid-crash that get run over. It tells you when that shape tends to finish lower, not to short every bounce.

ANOMALY ARRIVALS — WHAT'S REAL

FLTANOMALYWHEN (SOFIA TIME)EVIDENCESTATUS
Tap or press Enter on a row for sources. ✓ CONFIRMED = shows up in this data and/or published research. ~ WEAK = small, noisy or a single event. ↓ FADED = was real, has weakened since publication. ✕ NO EFFECT = tested, nothing there. [F] = measured here or published with a source · [E] = estimate / explanation. Times in this table are Sofia time.

"ARE MOVES TIMED TO HIT TRADERS AT DINNER / BEDTIME?"

[F] PATTERN IS REAL

The biggest moves cluster in fixed hours. A top-5% hour is 10× more likely at 17:00 Sofia (16.4%) than at 12:00–13:00 (1.6%). For Europe that's the commute home and dinner. For Asia it's bedtime.

[E] BEST EXPLANATION

The US clock: 08:30 ET data, the 09:30 ET open, the 14:00 ET Fed decision, and the Sunday 18:00 ET reopen. Thin books then let a push run into stop and liquidation clusters. Hunting liquidity is ordinary, legal market structure.

[S] NOT PROVABLE

That anyone schedules moves for your dinner. Price candles can't show intent. What you can honestly say: "the market moves when you're not watching."

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